Objects in the rear view mirror

There is an article in Businessweek about "How Science Can Create Millions of New Jobs". The article then goes on to lament how basic research exemplified by stalwarts like Xerox PARC and Bell Labs has declined and therefore needs a shot in the arm to create the jobs of the future.

I think the article misses the point by quite a distance. The question is not where did growth come from in the past and how we can revive these glorious times. The real question, I think, should be: Where is the current basic research going strong, inside and outside of the US, and in the areas where the US is lacking, what can be done to boost research?

The flaw the article makes is to only mention basic research in telecommunications and computer hardware, two areas which admittedly have driven job growth globally for more than a decade. But I think the cutting edge of this area and the big effect on employment is over. There is always room for surprises, but I think the fact that the likes of Xerox PARC and Bell Labs got downsized is not the cause of the drying up of basic research, but an effect of getting less and less money for a dollar spent on basic research in these areas.

So instead of looking at the past, lets move on, where is the new new stuff coming from? One way is to look at the areas where a lot of money is spend on basic research by industry and the public:

• Biotech, including bio-agriculture
• Medical research, for example analytics, medical devices
• Alternative/green energies, including things like battery technology, solar power, electric vehicles/hybrids, biofuels

In the first two areas the US is one of the major players, if not THE dominant player. But for a long time the US missed the boat and the potential for economic impact energy efficiency might bring. Americans insist on their god given right to drive oversized cars that consume bathtubs of gasoline, which is fine. But the rest of the world has gotten smart about energy efficiency and alternative energies. In the areas of hybrid cars, wind turbines, solar power, and biofuels the US is playing catch up with countries like Japan (no surprise here), but also Denmark, Brazil, and Israel, indicating that the playing field has been wide open for smart new entrants.

Fortunately the current administration seems to be willing to pour money into these areas now. The Xerox PARC and Bells Labs of the future are called DOE and Scripps (DARPA is still playing a big role).

The Businessweek article states "With upstream invention and discovery drying up, innovations capable of generating an industry have thinned to a trickle." I think the author is missing the torrent of innovations that have been happening while he was staring at his rear view mirror.